NVO: GLP-1 Giant Falls to 10x Earnings on Lilly Fears
Novo Nordisk shares have collapsed to $37.45, a 59% decline from their 52-week high of $91.90, after the company's next-generation obesity drug CagriSema delivered clinical trial results that trailed Eli Lilly's Zepbound. The February 27 selloff alone erased 21% of the stock's value in a single session, marking the most dramatic repudiation of a GLP-1 leader since the obesity drug revolution began. At 10.3 times trailing earnings, Novo Nordisk now trades at a valuation that would be cheap for a utility company — let alone a pharmaceutical giant that generated DKK 308 billion ($44 billion) in revenue last year with 81% gross margins. The market cap has contracted to $166.5 billion, roughly half of where it stood six months ago. The question facing investors is whether the CagriSema disappointment is a fundamental thesis-breaker or whether the market has overreacted. Novo Nordisk still dominates the GLP-1 market alongside Eli Lilly, with Wegovy and Ozempic generating massive cash flows. But with the company guiding for a 5–13% decline in 2026 sales due to U.S. price compression, the near-term outlook is genuinely challenging. For context on how NVO reached this point, see our [earlier analysis of the 50% price reduction](/articles/nvo-analysis-novo-nordisks-50-price-slash-creates-a-deep-value-puzzle-for-glp-1-investors) that preceded this latest crash.