Mortgage Rates Jump as Iran Crisis Fuels Inflation
Mortgage rates reversed course sharply on Monday, March 2, erasing last week's decline as the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging an
30-year fixed rates have climbed back to 6.00–6.40% despite the Fed holding at 3.50–3.75%. That $1,997/month payment on a median-priced home is the number to beat — here's how.
10 guides available
6.37%
30-Year Fixed
National average
5.74%
15-Year Fixed
National average
$400,000
Median Home Price
US national
$806,500
Conforming Limit
2026 FHFA
Mortgage rates spiked roughly 40 basis points in March 2026 alone, erasing the brief dip below 6% that had buyers optimistic. The 30-year fixed now sits around 6.00–6.40% — well above the Fed funds target of 3.50–3.75%. That roughly 270-basis-point spread between short-term policy rates and long-term mortgage rates is historically wide, reflecting inflation expectations and term premium rather than Fed policy alone.
For a borrower putting 20% down on a $400,000 home (a $320,000 loan), the 30-year fixed payment works out to about $1,997/month in principal and interest. A 15-year fixed at 5.40–5.75% costs $2,759/month but saves over $220,000 in total interest. The gap matters: choosing the wrong term or waiting for rates that may not drop is a six-figure decision.
The Fed has cut 175 basis points from its peak, yet mortgage rates have barely budged. Until the 10-year Treasury yield meaningfully declines — unlikely while inflation expectations remain elevated — expect 30-year rates to stay in the 6–7% range through mid-2026.
Weekly average rates. Data as of 2026-04-09. Source: Freddie Mac via FRED.
The most popular mortgage. Fixed rate of 6.00–6.40% for the full 30-year term. Requires as little as 3% down, but PMI applies below 20%. Conforming loan limit is $806,500 for most counties in 2026. Predictable monthly payments make budgeting easy.
Lower rate of 5.40–5.75% and you own your home in half the time. Higher monthly payments than a 30-year, but you pay far less total interest. Best for borrowers who can afford the larger payment and want to build equity quickly.
Government-backed loan requiring only 3.5% down payment and accepting credit scores as low as 580. Mortgage insurance premium (MIP) is required for the life of the loan. Popular with first-time home buyers who lack a large down payment.
Available to eligible veterans, active-duty service members, and surviving spouses. No down payment required (0%), no PMI, and competitive rates. VA funding fee applies but can be rolled into the loan. One of the best mortgage benefits available.
| Feature | 30-Year Fixed | 15-Year Fixed | 5/1 ARM | FHA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical Rate | 6.00–6.40% | 5.40–5.75% | Lower initially, then adjusts | Similar to 30-year fixed |
| Min Down Payment | 3% (conventional) | 3% (conventional) | 3–5% (conventional) | 3.5% |
| Monthly Payment | Lowest (longer term) | Higher (~40% more) | Low initially, may increase | Moderate + MIP |
| Total Interest Paid | Highest | Much less (~50% savings) | Depends on rate adjustments | High (30-year term + MIP) |
| PMI Required | Below 20% down (removable) | Below 20% down (removable) | Below 20% down (removable) | MIP for life of loan |
| Best For | Most home buyers | Fast equity builders | Short-term homeowners | First-time buyers, lower credit |
With 20% down ($80,000), your loan amount is $320,000. Here's how the two most popular fixed-rate terms compare at current rates — principal and interest only, before taxes and insurance.
30-Year Fixed
$1,997/mo
Total interest: $398,920
15-Year Fixed
$2,759/mo
Total interest: $176,620
Based on current average rates. Add ~$200–400/month for property taxes and homeowner's insurance depending on location. PMI adds $100–250/month if your down payment is below 20%. Use our mortgage calculator for your specific numbers.
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Open Mortgage Calculator →Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Mortgage rates shown are national averages and change frequently. Your actual rate will depend on your credit score, down payment, loan type, and lender. Always shop multiple lenders and get pre-approved before making an offer. Consult a qualified mortgage professional for personalized advice.